New economic data is shaping the commercial real estate market outlook in 2026, pointing to a steady but cautious year ahead. The latest November Economic Update highlights how capital markets, labor trends, and sector performance are influencing expectations for commercial real estate investors.
Commercial Real Estate Market Outlook 2026: What the Data Shows
Capital Markets and Investment Outlook
Liquidity improved modestly in 2025, with investors anticipating near-term relief from lower interest rates and pent-up equity demand. However, long-term caution remains due to higher structural rates and declining foreign investment.
Sector Performance Highlights
- Data Centers continue accelerating due to cloud demand and AI adoption.
- Medical Office remains stable, with CMBS delinquencies at 6.15%, far below traditional office.
- Office continues its bifurcated performance, with high-quality assets showing resilience while older buildings face significant vacancy.
- Logistics and Warehousing show steady national growth, supported by a Logistics Managers’ Index reading of 57.4.
- Multifamily is stabilizing, with national rents expected to rise 2.3% in 2026 after cooling in 2024–25.
Labor and Sentiment
Private-sector employment increased by 42,000 jobs in October, wages rose 4.5%, and small business optimism remains above long-term averages despite hiring challenges. Consumer sentiment dipped slightly, but stable inflation expectations reflect an adjusting economy.
What This Means for the Commercial Real Estate Market Outlook 2026
The combination of stabilized rates, moderating inflation, and sector-specific resilience supports a cautiously optimistic view. Investors who focus on high-quality assets, strategic timing, and emerging property types — including data centers and medical office — may be best positioned for early-cycle growth in 2026.
For a closer look at Spokane County’s multifamily performance, see our Q3 2025 Spokane Multifamily Sales Snapshot
For more detail on national employment data, visit the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Latest Jobs Report